Canada fire weather outlook

Each week during the wildfire season, Dr. Mike Flannigan will share a five- to 10-day fire weather outlook for Canada. This is a first step in developing a national early warning system for wildfire in Canada. The fire weather outlook will be posted every Tuesday.

Mike Flannigan is the scientific director of the Institute for Wildfire Science, Adaptation, and Resiliency as well as the BC Innovation Research Chair in Predictive Services, Emergency Management and Fire Science at Thompson Rivers University.

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Weekly Outlook | August 1-6, 2026 Issued July 28, 2026

All information provided below is reported at the time of publication and may not reflect more recent updates.

Current fire situationMore Fire & Smoke

During this fire season, I have invited colleagues to contribute sections on wildfire-related topics to the outlook. This week, I am pleased to share a contribution on Wildfire Smoke Monitoring and Modelling by Brian Wiens (@wildfirebrian.bsky.social), who works with the Canada Wildfire Network (@canadawildfire.bsky.social ). Brian’s contribution is in italics below.

Wildfire smoke is a complex mixture that evolves as it travels thousands of kilometres on the wind. High concentrations of fine particles (smaller than 2.5 microns in size or PM2.5) are a reliable and persistent marker of smoke plumes even when the smell changes or disappears. PM2.5 creates a haze that reduces visibility and is inhaled deep into the lungs. Real-time concentrations of PM2.5 are tracked and displayed on the Purple Air Map using a worldwide network of their sensors, or a map of Canadian Air quality stations that adds other air quality data. These observations are used to create the air quality status on the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) website for specific locations. When PM2.5 is over 125ug/m3 it is considered very high and minimizing outdoor time and activity is recommended. People who are more sensitive can experience impacts at much lower levels.

The Meteorological Service of Canada website also includes forecast conditions for air quality based on predictions of smoke. Smoke travels in bands or rivers of smoke carried on the overall wind patterns. To forecast this motion a computer model is used to predict the wind and where the smoke will travel. One option to see this is, FireSmoke Canada, which focuses on the transport and dispersion of smoke. The MSC operates an air quality model that includes smoke emissions, chemical transformations and precipitation that can wash out smoke, which can be viewed at FireWork. As smoke levels can change rapidly, access to both real time conditions and forecasts can help plan activities and responses.

Wildfires are in the news again with significant fires in France, Spain, the Pacific Northwest and BC. Figure 1 shows large smoke plumes from fires in Washington State, Oregon, and BC. Area burned in Canada is now over 3.7 million ha (an equivalent to more than half the size of New Brunswick) and well above the 10-year average (ciffc.ca). This marks Canada’s fourth active fire season in a row for the first time in our modern-day record. We have about 700 out of control fires and most of those (~550) are being monitored as out-of-control wildfires.

Figure 1: GOES-West Geocolor imagery loop for July 24th, 2026.

Fire weather outlook August 1-6

The fire weather pattern is not conducive to significant fire activity across most of the country during the outlook period. The exception is BC, where significant fire activity is likely to continue, particularly in the southern regions. Other areas that may see an increase in fire activity include northwestern Ontario. Figure 2 shows the Hot, Dry, Windy Index (HDWI) for northwestern Ontario, where the higher the values, the more conducive the conditions are for fire activity. Several ensemble members show high percentile HDWI values relative to climatology on August 2nd and 3rd. The surface weather map (Figure 3) also suggests hot, dry, and windy conditions in northwestern Ontario, where isobars – lines of equal pressure - are closely spaced, indicating stronger winds. Additionally, a cold front with limited associated precipitation is forecast to move across northwestern Ontario on Monday and Tuesday (August 3rd & 4th); cold fronts are often a trigger for rapid fire growth. The Northwest Territories may also see continued fire activity, as numerous fires remain on the landscape and precipitation amounts are forecast to be low across parts of the NWT over the next 15 days (Figure 4).

Figure 2. Maximum daily HDWI for 51.5°N, 92.5°W.

Figure 3. Surface weather map for 7:00 PM ET, Sunday, August 2nd, 2026.

A look ahead

Significant fire activity has been observed recently in Washington State and Oregon. The 15-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (Figure 4) shows most of Washington State, Oregon, and California remaining dry through the forecast period. Fire activity in Washington State and Oregon is expected to continue, and an increase in fire activity is likely across Idaho, Montana, and northern California.